Markets for Foxes

I am a huge believer in the power of markets – not in the laissez faire sense, but in the “Wisdom of Crowds” sense. Markets are fantastic predictors of future events, and are pretty much the best way we have of quantifying the aggregate wisdom of a large group of people. I have participated in the Iowa Electronic Market in the past, and dabbled on InTrade, though the nebulous legal status has driven me away.

So I am extremely excited about the possibility of a legally operated and federally regulated futures market dealing with political events. The Hedgehog/Fox analogy that gave rise to this blog is all about the pitfalls of making predictions based on ideology and bias – markets are one of the best ways to cutting through that and getting to the best collective wisdom has to offer. Markets allow people to put their money where their mouth is, and give the rest of us even better information about the future of our political system. It allows businesses to hedge against (perceived) political misfortune – and allows Seers like me to make some cash on the side……

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About thinklikeafox

I'm a Naval Officer living in Southern California. I hope to be attending law school in the next year or two, and I started writing this blog out of a desire to improve my writing and critical thinking skills after a couple years outside of academia.
This entry was posted in Politics, Seer of Seers, Toolkit and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Markets for Foxes

  1. Pingback: Political Futures Market Shot Down (For Now) | Think Like a Fox

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