Glide Slope: Caveats

I blogged last week about what would need to happen over the next two weeks for a brokered GOP convention to even remain in the realm of possibility. I argued that Santorum would need to win either Michigan or Arizona – that a win for Romney in both would make it pretty tough.

So far, it’s looking like Romney has a solid advantage in Arizona, but it’s still neck and neck in Michigan – some polls have Romney up in Michigan, others have Santorum up.

I want to caveat my previous argument with one qualifier: if Romney wins both Arizona and Michigan, but for whatever reason DOESN’T get a substantial bump in nationwide polls going into Super Tuesday, then it’s still possible. My projections for Super Tuesday though, I think remain – Santorum is a must-win in Ohio, and Gingrich is a must-win in Georgia.

So far, that’s looking very possible – Santorum is up in Ohio, Gingrich is up in Georgia. Even if Romney wins in AZ and MI, he needs those wins to give him momentum in OH and GA if he wants to avoid a battle that lasts all the way into the summer – if he doesn’t, the door is still open for a brokered convention (or at least for a post-July 31 deal).


About thinklikeafox

I'm a Naval Officer living in Southern California. I hope to be attending law school in the next year or two, and I started writing this blog out of a desire to improve my writing and critical thinking skills after a couple years outside of academia.
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One Response to Glide Slope: Caveats

  1. Pingback: Detailed Glide Slope | Think Like a Fox

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