I blogged last week about what would need to happen over the next two weeks for a brokered GOP convention to even remain in the realm of possibility. I argued that Santorum would need to win either Michigan or Arizona – that a win for Romney in both would make it pretty tough.
I want to caveat my previous argument with one qualifier: if Romney wins both Arizona and Michigan, but for whatever reason DOESN’T get a substantial bump in nationwide polls going into Super Tuesday, then it’s still possible. My projections for Super Tuesday though, I think remain – Santorum is a must-win in Ohio, and Gingrich is a must-win in Georgia.
So far, that’s looking very possible – Santorum is up in Ohio, Gingrich is up in Georgia. Even if Romney wins in AZ and MI, he needs those wins to give him momentum in OH and GA if he wants to avoid a battle that lasts all the way into the summer – if he doesn’t, the door is still open for a brokered convention (or at least for a post-July 31 deal).