I’ve previously logged a prediction that a) Romney will get the GOP nomination and b) Obama will win the general election. That’s not exactly political dynamite as far as predictions go – anything else would be a surprise at this point to most of pundit-land. What will be interesting to see is the reaction of non-Presidential-candidates to the race as it goes on.
The people to watch are the GOP Congressional leadership and GOP State Governors – if they start distancing themselves from Romney, that’s a sure sign of doom for a Presidential candidate. George Will has already started calling on the GOP to start focusing more and more resources on winning back the House and Senate, and the GOP on the Hill have begun a slightly more bipartisan bent lately.
Of course, if the polls start to shift and Romney starts to look like a winner, this is all moot – but the behavior of the rest of the GOP will be a strong sign of what the GOP really thinks about their chances of victory. It’s still a long way to November – it only takes one major foreign policy failure or economic downturn for my prediction of an Obama victory to go up in smoke.