In both years, a supposedly “vulnerable” incumbent will run against a challenger that led going into the primaries, no one is really that excited about, and whose most important qualification is “Anyone but Bush/Obama.” And of course, in both cases, the challenger’s biggest weakness is a habit (or perceived habit) of “flip-flopping.”
Worse yet for the GOP:
Polling released by the Post and ABC on Monday showed Obama with a seven-point edge over Romney among registered voters. At this point in the 2004 election, Kerry stood at 48 percent to 44 percent for Bush.
Of course, Kerry had been the official nominee for a month at this point, so he had had time to build up some support against BUSH instead of the other would-be Democratic candidates. Romney has had to run against his fellow Republicans, so it might be a better comparison point to compare Romney in 1 month to where Kerry was at this point.
That said, it’s hard to imagine Romney being 4 points ahead of Obama in one-months time, but he could certainly close the gap before November (though I have previously expressed my doubt that this will happen.)