According to the Washington Post’s electoral math, those are three of the biggest states to watch going into the general election:
The electoral map reveals how perilous is President Obama’s grip on the White House. Let’s start, as RealClearPolitics does, with a base of 170 electoral votes for Mitt Romney. It’s hard to imagine that Obama could win any of even the less-red states that comprise that batch (e.g. Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, Montana). To get 100 more and seize the presidency, Romney only needs some states that routinely went Republican before the 2008 race (Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia) and needs to hold on to a few that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) managed to win (Arizona, Missouri). This gets Romney to 273.
In other words, Romney doesn’t need to win (but he might) in New Hampshire or New Mexico. He would love to, but isn’t required to, break through in states like Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin or Michigan. (The first and last would seem the most likely.)
I’ve been predicting a win for Obama in ’08, but admit I haven’t really looked closely at the electoral math behind that logic. I still think that he will ultimately win, but that article definitely makes me remember just how close it will be. Thinking Like a Fox is all about recognizing where your assumptions and preconceptions might be tripping you up, so I definitely want to point out just how many things could be wrong about my prediction #3.
As far as my Prediction #2 – the Bob McDonnell will be the GOP Vice Presidential nominee, the article is making me feel pretty good about it. Romney’s search has apparently begun, I’m convinced that Romney needs some Southern street cred, so the likely Ohio option, Bob Portman, is out. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are both possible for Florida, but I’m not convinced Romney really wants to be that tied to the Bush name so soon after 2008, and Rubio I don’t think is ready to run.
So that leaves VA and a tea-party favorite, Bob McDonnell. We’ll see if I’m right soon enough….