Required Reading for Election Season

If you read a lot of politics, definitely make time for this article:

  1. Be patient.
  2. Take the poll average.
  3. Discount, but don’t throw out, “outlier” polls.
  4. Pay attention to “house effects.”
  5. Pay attention to likely voters versus registered voters.
  6. Keep paying attention to Mr. Obama’s approval ratings.
  7. Look at a robust array of economic indicators.
  8. Be careful with economic forecasts.
  9. State poll data is useful but very noisy.
  10. Don’t abuse demographic cross-tabs.
  11. Read the polls in the context of the news.
  12. Don’t over-learn the lessons of history.



About thinklikeafox

I'm a Naval Officer living in Southern California. I hope to be attending law school in the next year or two, and I started writing this blog out of a desire to improve my writing and critical thinking skills after a couple years outside of academia.
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