From the 538 Blog:
Since Rick Santorum suspended his presidential campaign, essentially endingthe Republican primary contest, the starting positions for the general election have taken shape. About 10 national polls have been released: President Obama leads Mitt Romney 47.7 percent to 43.7 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics average of recent surveys…..
It is easy to get lost in the weeds. But, of course, the election is still more than six months away, and in the past 10 presidential campaigns, the national polling leader in late April has won the election only half of the time.
Which is to say, the Spring polls tell you absolutely nothing about the Fall. Good thing to keep in mind during the next few months of pre-convention political coverage.