With the decision on the ACA coming up in mere minutes (I’m writing this at 0645 PST), I figured I’d put my prediction out there, in anticipation of being embarrassingly wrong by the time any one reads this.
Prediction: The individual mandate will be struck down as an over reach of the commerce clause, but the rest of the act will be severed from the mandate. 5-4 decision.
I previously posted about the effect this decision is likely to have on the election. I’m thinking right now that just about any strike-down of the law (in whole or part) is a big win for the Romney campaign, but not for the reason you might think. The #1 thing it gives him is insurance against any improvement in the economy over the next 4 months – if the economy starts to tick up close to election day, he will try and make the argument that it’s responding to the repeal of a major government regulation – and that if elected, he’ll repeal even more.
True or not, I don’t know, but I think it has potential to be an effective argument.