ACA Prediction (Just Under the Wire)

With the decision on the ACA coming up in mere minutes (I’m writing this at 0645 PST), I figured I’d put my prediction out there, in anticipation of being embarrassingly wrong by the time any one reads this. 

Prediction: The individual mandate will be struck down as an over reach of the commerce clause, but the rest of the act will be severed from the mandate. 5-4 decision.

I previously posted about the effect this decision is likely to have on the election. I’m thinking right now that just about any strike-down of the law (in whole or part) is a big win for the Romney campaign, but not for the reason you might think. The #1 thing it gives him is insurance against any improvement in the economy over the next 4 months – if the economy starts to tick up close to election day, he will try and make the argument that it’s responding to the repeal of a major government regulation – and that if elected, he’ll repeal even more.

True or not, I don’t know, but I think it has potential to be an effective argument.


About thinklikeafox

I'm a Naval Officer living in Southern California. I hope to be attending law school in the next year or two, and I started writing this blog out of a desire to improve my writing and critical thinking skills after a couple years outside of academia.
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