Seer of Seers

The inspiration for this blog is in large part the work of Philip Tetlock, an expert on political judgment and predictions.  He argues that one of the reasons predictions are so bad is that no one holds any one else accountable for making bad predictions.  Here, I’ll try to hold myself accountable, and link to all my “prediction” posts. At some point, I’ll get it together to give myself a grade card on how I did, and post that here as well.


  1. Mitt Romney will win the 2012 GOP nomination
  2. Bob McDonnell will be the 2012 GOP VP nominee
  3. Barrack Obama will win reelection in 2012  
  4. Stuff will happen that will mess up my previous predictions
  5. 2012 Predictions… Nay, Prophecies! 
  6. Predicting the NH primary   (Follow up: Completely blew this one)

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